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IEA Sees 5.7 Million Bpd Oil Supply Plunge as Gulf Recovery Slips to 2027
oilprice.com · September 11, 2026 · Week 2026-37
Summary
The IEA has significantly downgraded its 2026 global oil supply forecast, now projecting a 5.7 million bpd decline due to a delayed recovery in Middle Eastern production. The agency pushes the timeline for a return to normal Gulf supply to 2027, citing recent attacks that caused Saudi Arabian output to plunge to a three-decade low and contributed to a wider OPEC+ production drop.
Strategic Implication
The IEA's pessimistic outlook signals prolonged market tightness and price volatility, increasing pressure on OPEC+ to manage a fragile supply-demand balance through 2027.