News & Macromedium confidence
Europe's "Less" Is Doing More Than Anyone Gives It Credit For
Michael Kern · September 11, 2026 · Week 2026-37
Summary
In a hypothetical scenario where the Strait of Hormuz is closed due to conflict, Brent crude has surged above $104/bbl and Saudi production has fallen by 1.9 million bpd. The analysis argues that Europe's long-term investments in energy efficiency have made it more resilient to this severe Gulf supply shock than conventional wisdom would suggest.
Strategic Implication
Highlights how a catastrophic supply shock from the Gulf tests the resilience of major import markets, potentially reshaping long-term energy security strategies around demand reduction.