News & Macrohigh confidence
World Bank says Middle East economy to contract 2.1% in 2026 due to Iran war
The National · October 6, 2026 · Week 2026-41
Summary
The World Bank forecasts a 2.1% economic contraction for the Middle East in 2026, attributing the downturn to the severe economic fallout from a hypothetical war involving Iran. This projection highlights the significant risk that regional conflict poses to economic stability and growth across the MENA region.
Strategic Implication
A major regional conflict involving Iran would drastically alter energy investment forecasts, likely leading to project delays, capex cuts, and heightened risk premiums across the Gulf.