Iraq Builds 2027 Budget on $58 Oil—and a Very Large Deficit

Summary

Iraq's 2027 draft budget is based on a conservative $58/barrel oil price and 4 million bpd of exports, creating a substantial fiscal deficit of over 40 trillion dinars. This assumption is well below the IMF's estimated $92/barrel breakeven price, highlighting Baghdad's fiscal vulnerability and potential need for borrowing, spending cuts, or currency devaluation to manage its finances.