Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels Amid US-Iran Tensions, Rystad Says

Summary

According to a Rystad Energy analysis, a comprehensive settlement between the US and Iran is unlikely in the near term, meaning oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will remain well below pre-conflict levels. Despite a partial recovery, ongoing security risks, sanctions, and the potential for military escalation will continue to suppress exports from Persian Gulf producers, which are currently around 12 million bpd compared to a pre-war normal of 18 million bpd.