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Oil nears $100/bbl as US sanctions on Iran disrupt Strait of Hormuz traffic

Tom Kool · August 21, 2026 · Week 2026-34

Summary

A US 'Economic D-Day' campaign against Iran has severely restricted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, causing a significant geopolitical risk premium and pushing Brent crude prices toward $100 per barrel. In response, Iraq is developing alternative export routes to bypass the chokepoint and has signaled ambitions to double its oil production, which would require a renegotiation of its OPEC quota.

Strategic Implication

Heightened US-Iran confrontation is creating extreme price volatility and forcing Gulf producers to urgently de-risk their export routes from the Hormuz chokepoint.

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